Uganda’s 2026 elections: Record-low turnout amid landslide victory and lingering disputes

2 February 2026, 4:24 pm

By Shadrach Bethel Afayo

Uganda’s 2026 general elections have unfolded over an extended period, beginning with presidential and parliamentary voting on January 15, followed by local government council elections, special interest group polls, and supplementary or postponed ballots stretching into late January and early February.

Local council leader selections occurred on staggered dates, such as January 19–22 for certain special interest groups, January 27 for some municipal positions, and some even set for February 4 in areas affected by logistical delays or postponements.

By early February 2026, the vast majority of the electoral cycle has wrapped up, with most disputes resolved through recounts, court oversight, and final declarations, though a few isolated local cases remain pending.

The Electoral Commission declared incumbent President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) the winner on January 17, awarding him a seventh term and prolonging his rule—spanning more than four decades—for another five years.

Museveni captured 71.65 percent of the valid votes, totaling 7,946,772 ballots. His leading opponent, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) of the National Unity Platform (NUP), secured 24.72 percent, or 2,741,238 votes.

Candidates from other parties, including the Forum for Democratic Change and Alliance for National Transformation, each received less than 2 percent, while spoilt votes amounted to 275,353 (roughly 2.24 percent of ballots cast).

Museveni surpassed the constitutional threshold of more than 50 percent plus one vote, claiming victory outright in the first round. From a national voters’ register of 21,649,067, 11,366,201 votes were cast in the presidential race, yielding an official turnout of 52.5 percent according to the Electoral Commission.

This represents the lowest participation rate in Uganda’s presidential elections since the restoration of multiparty politics in 1996, continuing a downward trajectory from prior cycles: over 70 percent in 1996 and 2001, around 69 percent in 2006, 59 percent in 2011, 67.6 percent in 2016, and 59 percent in 2021.

The decline signals deep-seated disengagement rather than simple indifference, driven by fear, frustration, procedural flaws, and widespread loss of faith in electoral integrity. Regional variations highlighted the uneven participation. Urban and opposition-leaning areas, especially Kampala and parts of Buganda, recorded turnout as low as 28 percent in certain constituencies, with broader Buganda dipping under 50 percent and pockets in Acholi and Busoga in the mid-40s percent.

In contrast, NRM strongholds like Ankole neared 75 percent and Karamoja around 70 percent. This pattern carried over to subsequent local council elections, where turnout in urban Kampala markets and stations frequently fell below 13 percent, often leaving polling venues deserted and officials idle. Controversies permeating the process likely intensified abstention.

On January 15, widespread failures of biometric voter verification kits delayed voting significantly, necessitating manual verification in many locations. The Electoral Commission insisted these were lawful safeguards that preserved vote integrity, yet opposition parties and civil society contended the issues disproportionately affected opposition strongholds, fueling suspicions.

A nationwide internet shutdown, initiated days before polling and extended through initial counting, was justified by authorities as a measure against misinformation and unrest but drew condemnation from critics, human rights groups, and observers for obstructing transparency, independent monitoring, and citizens’ access to real-time information.

Reports of intimidation, arrests, abductions, and isolated violence further discouraged turnout. Opposition accounts described systematic targeting of NUP supporters, candidates, and polling agents in the pre- and post-polling phases. Bobi Wine dismissed the presidential results as fraudulent, alleging widespread irregularities including ballot stuffing and restrictions on his movements, and called for peaceful demonstrations—some of which escalated.

International observer missions, including those from the African Union led by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, described polling day as relatively calmer than 2021 but expressed serious concerns over the pre-election atmosphere, internet blackout, and intimidation tactics that undermined public trust, while noting no direct evidence of large-scale ballot stuffing.

President Museveni, addressing the nation during Liberation Day celebrations at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds while processes continued, defended his victory and the subdued turnout. He pointed to voter intimidation, internal NRM indiscipline, and corruption in government programs as root issues, while remarking: “They are lucky because all my supporters did not turn up. Only eight million turned up. If all did, there would be no opposition in Uganda.”

Ordinary voters articulated personal fears behind their decisions to abstain. Denis Mukone, a resident of Masaba Ward in Mbale City, said: “We anticipated violence because the machines failed in many places. That created a lot of tension, and many of us felt the process could be compromised or turn violent, so we stayed home.”

Magombe Faisal, a businessman in Mbale, added: “We saw many reports, especially involving people connected to NUP. That made people think twice about voting because anyone could become a target.”

With the process nearing completion, a significant recent resolution occurred in the Masaka City Woman MP race. Following a court-ordered recount supervised by Chief Magistrate Albert Asiimwe over several days, NRM’s Justine Nameere was today declared the winner with 25,502 votes, reversing the initial Electoral Commission declaration favoring NUP’s Rose Nalubowa (who received 23,176 in the recount).

The exercise scrutinised ballot boxes for discrepancies and set aside some due to tampering suspicions, underscoring ongoing verification tensions. As the extended electoral marathon concludes, the defining narrative remains the historic voter disengagement. The 52.5 percent turnout reflects a profound crisis of confidence, exacerbated by technical, political, and security barriers.

Restoring faith in the electoral process as a secure, credible, and meaningful avenue for civic participation stands as Uganda’s most pressing democratic imperative—one that will profoundly shape the nation’s political future beyond the final declarations.