Kampala braces for hotter, drier December with occasional light showers – scientists

16 December 2025, 5:19 pm

By Byamukama Alozious

Climate scientists have warned that Kampala and its surrounding areas are likely to experience hotter-than-usual temperatures and predominantly dry conditions throughout December, with only occasional, isolated light showers expected as the dry season sets in.

The projection is detailed in recent outlooks by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, which indicate that much of the country, including the central region, will record reduced rainfall and rising temperatures extending into early 2026.

“Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected over most parts of the region,” ICPAC noted, adding that dry conditions will prevail across several IGAD member states in December. For central Uganda, including Kampala, rainfall is expected to remain below normal, with any showers being brief and scattered.

Kamara Daniel, a seasonal nutritionist based in Kampala, urged the public to prioritise adequate water intake and consumption of fruits, warning that prolonged exposure to excessive heat could negatively affect health, particularly among children, the elderly, and people with underlying medical conditions.

The forecast comes at a time when many urban residents and surrounding peri-urban communities are already experiencing water stress, while farmers supplying food to the city are facing reduced harvests due to erratic rainfall patterns.

Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, the Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Water and Environment, explained that December marks the onset of the dry season in central Uganda following the September to November rains. He noted that the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone results in prolonged dry spells over Kampala and much of the country.

“Although December is generally dry, areas around the Lake Victoria basin, including Kampala, may occasionally experience locally driven, light showers,” Dr Okidi said, adding that such rains are often short-lived and unevenly distributed.

He further explained that moist air masses from the Congo, transported by westerly winds, can sometimes trigger brief rainfall episodes around the Lake Victoria basin, but these do not significantly alter the overall dry conditions. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, a large-scale tropical weather system, has also contributed to the prevailing hot and dry conditions currently being experienced in the city.

Temperature projections indicate that Kampala and the central region are likely to record maximum temperatures between 30°C and 32°C during the month, while night-time temperatures may range from 18°C to 20°C. The rising heat is expected to increase discomfort, particularly in densely populated city neighbourhoods with limited green spaces.

The Ministry of Water and Environment warned that prolonged dry spells could strain water supply systems serving the capital, disrupt urban agriculture, and heighten the risk of heat-related illnesses. Residents have been advised to use water sparingly and adopt simple heat-mitigation measures.

Winnie Mirembe, a climate change activist, encouraged communities in Kampala to take advantage of the occasional light rains to harvest and store water, noting that even small amounts could support irrigation, particularly for households engaged in urban farming.

Authorities have also cautioned that occasional intense, localised showers could trigger flash floods in low-lying areas of Kampala, particularly where drainage is poor. Motorists have been advised to remain vigilant, as early-morning fog and sudden rainfall may reduce visibility.

The ministry further warned that higher temperatures could increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, urging city residents to sleep under treated mosquito nets and seek prompt medical attention if symptoms develop.